This article is based on a personal experience I shared as part of my ongoing reflections—raw observations from real life that reveal how our minds work.
What you’re about to read is a refined version of that story. The full recording contains all the spontaneous realizations, the moment I first connected the dots between what I thought happened and what actually happened, and the humor in watching myself construct an entire false narrative from incomplete information.
If you want the complete experience—the unfiltered storytelling, the pauses where it all clicked, my complete reaction to realizing I’d been wrong for 40 hours straight—become a paid subscriber to access the full audio archive.
But the article below will give you the core lesson: How our minds fill in gaps with less than 40% of the information, why being wrong is actually good for growth, and what happens when ego prevents us from staying open to learning.
Introduction
The other day, I went for a walk around 3:30 in the morning. When I walk this early, I always carry my .380 with me.
As I’m crossing through the neighborhood, I hear it: pop, pop, pop, pop, pop. Four or five distinct pops. At 3:30 in the morning, I don’t know what that is, so I turn around and start heading home.
But after a few steps, I stop. Worst case scenario—if that was a gunshot and someone just got hurt—I should at least have some idea of what’s happening in my own neighborhood.
So I turn back around and continue toward my normal walking spot, just a few hundred feet ahead, to see if anything looks out of the ordinary.
I do notice two cars speeding off from the neighborhood across the street. Okay, I think, maybe I did see something. But when I reach my usual landmark and do my stretches, nothing else seems off. I head home.
The Narrative Begins
I go about my day and hit the gym. On my way back around 6:30, I hear what sounds like helicopters overhead. Okay, I think, I was right. That must have been a shooting. I even google “shooting” and my area, but nothing comes up.
A few hours later, I tell my wife what happened. “Yeah,” she says, “it does sound like it could have been a shooting.”
This was October 30th. I spend the entire day wondering: What did I hear?
The Plot Twist
Fast forward to Halloween. We’re out in the neighborhood with family and neighbors, and I mention the incident to my mother-in-law and uncle-in-law.
Their response? “You probably just heard an old car starting up.”
I pause. An old car. That thought had never even crossed my mind. At 3 a.m., hearing pop, pop, pop, pop, pop, my brain immediately jumped to: gunshots.
But why didn’t I consider a car backfiring? Or even the motorcycle guy I see every morning—his bike could make that sound too.
For 40 hours, I had convinced myself there was a murder in my neighborhood, followed by police helicopters searching for a killer.
The next day, I hear that “helicopter” sound again. I look up—no helicopter. Instead, I see a guy flying his private plane. We live in an area where people can take off in small planes and even go parachuting.
That’s what I’d been hearing. Not a manhunt. Just some guy enjoying cooler weather in his plane. I’ve seen that plane nearly every day since.
The Lesson
This whole experience reminds me of something I wrote about in my article on The Batman—how Batman, poisoned and confused, believes he’s protecting people from zombies when really, he’s the one who’s been poisoned.
A Lesson in Data-Driven Reality from The Batman
One of the shows I’ve let my child watch is a series I grew up with — The Batman. Now, I probably shouldn’t let a three-year-old watch even the kid-friendly version, but nostalgia can be persuasive.
I thought I had it figured out. That’s how our minds work: we interpret things based on the information we have. But this was an excellent reminder of how wrong I can be. I had some information, but not the full picture.
In my article on decision-making, I reference Colin Powell’s rule: you make a decision when you have 40 to 70 percent of the information. Anything less than 40 percent, you’re guessing. Anything over 70 percent, you’re in good shape.
How To Make Better Decisions
I’m sure we can all attest to the pain of making decisions—the stress and anxiety that comes with it, the uncertainty, and worst of all: paralysis by analysis.
Based on what I heard, I had less than 40 percent accuracy. But my mind filled in the rest anyway.
This connects to what I’ve written about convenient truths—how we believe certain things when we only have fragments of the puzzle.
Why Being Wrong Matters
Here’s the real takeaway: yes, we can be right about many things, but we should never be afraid to be wrong.
Being wrong opens you up to learning. It keeps you aware that you could be mistaken, which means you never lose your ability to grow.
Being right all the time? That creates pride, ego—a rigidity that becomes like a mountain, unable to flow with new information.
I had fun with this little experiment the universe handed me. For two solid days, I genuinely believed something serious had happened in our neighborhood. I even told my wife, “If you’re going outside, take the gun with you.” I constructed an entire false narrative.
So guard your thoughts. Guard your mind. Be mindful of what enters this constant stream of consciousness we’re all swimming in.
As always, thank you for your time and attention. Have a great, wonderful day.
—Ashe
Franklin O’Kanu
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